Western Electoral Fragmentation Data | Case File FRAG-001

The File

Voters exit establishments election by election, and the exits are counted by the official bodies that certify results. This file compiles the certified numbers across six Western democracies. The pattern is the same in every language.

The Documented Record

At the most recent Australian federal election, parties other than Labor and the Coalition took just over 30 percent of House first preferences per AEC Tally Room data, up from single digits in 1980. [DOCUMENTED]

The Kiesraad's certified November 2023 Dutch results made the PVV the largest party with 23.5 percent and 37 seats, a historic low point for the traditional governing parties combined. [DOCUMENTED]

French Interior Ministry data show the Parti Socialiste at 1.75 percent of the 2022 legislative first round, with the two traditional governing parties combined in the low teens across 2022 and 2024. [DOCUMENTED]

The Bundeswahlleiterin's final 2025 results show CDU/CSU at 32.1 percent and the SPD at 20.8 percent of second votes, the lowest combined share for the two Volksparteien in Federal Republic history. [DOCUMENTED]

The House of Commons Library GE2024 briefing records Conservative and Labour candidates together taking 57.4 percent of votes, the lowest combined two-party share since 1945. [DOCUMENTED]

ParlGov's long-run dataset documents the decline of establishment-party combined vote share across Western democracies since 1945. [HIGH]

What the Record Does Not Establish

Whether the Australian Greens count as non-major is a definitional choice; the AEC figure above counts everything outside Labor and the Coalition, and readers who exclude the Greens should subtract roughly a tenth. The record establishes fragmentation, not its sufficiency as proof of any single cause.

Sources

Connected Files

TRST-001 documents the trust depletion behind these exits. RVLT-002 documents one national case in full.